* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 54 55 51 48 46 44 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 54 55 51 48 46 44 42 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 57 57 56 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 29 30 33 32 40 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 3 3 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 176 174 173 192 204 220 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 144 139 135 120 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 130 126 122 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 54 54 48 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 47 38 17 31 63 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 54 79 48 56 40 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 1 5 2 -39 -201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 878 1032 1178 1242 1224 1073 989 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.7 29.1 30.7 32.3 35.2 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 64.6 64.5 63.8 63.2 59.1 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 19 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 19 22 18 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/11/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED