* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 44 52 60 64 70 76 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 44 52 60 55 65 71 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 53 52 60 66 73 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 14 15 9 5 12 14 15 5 11 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -3 -5 -4 -2 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 103 54 66 87 107 47 293 285 268 250 291 317 282 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 152 152 154 157 157 153 148 149 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 141 145 145 149 150 150 145 139 137 136 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 58 57 53 53 51 49 50 49 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -52 -52 -49 -48 -40 -26 -9 -8 -6 -31 -33 -46 200 MB DIV 6 -6 0 14 14 15 4 12 2 6 15 18 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -6 4 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 960 903 853 798 755 641 396 171 -22 64 30 100 146 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.8 55.7 56.7 57.7 59.8 62.1 64.2 66.2 68.1 69.7 71.1 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 66 61 57 54 42 56 77 47 73 84 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 19. 27. 35. 39. 45. 51. 58. 61. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/11/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED