* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 54 55 53 52 51 50 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 54 55 53 52 51 50 50 49 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 57 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 32 36 33 28 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 172 181 200 208 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.2 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 147 141 136 131 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 133 127 124 119 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 54 55 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 38 18 24 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 66 46 36 71 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 -14 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 1107 1165 1205 1167 1089 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.7 30.2 31.8 33.3 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.2 65.1 63.7 62.3 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 20 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 27 20 7 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)