* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 62 68 73 79 83 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 62 68 73 79 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 57 64 70 75 81 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 9 3 1 14 16 11 7 13 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 2 -6 -6 -2 -2 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 35 60 88 105 33 318 297 267 291 242 312 282 289 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 150 152 152 153 157 157 152 148 147 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 143 145 145 147 151 150 143 138 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 64 61 58 58 55 54 53 49 50 50 50 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -45 -40 -36 -32 -21 -20 -12 -9 -21 -45 -53 -78 200 MB DIV -6 5 20 2 -13 9 10 19 -7 3 0 8 8 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 -4 -1 3 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 919 860 808 746 696 609 383 162 22 122 118 192 244 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.2 56.1 57.1 58.1 60.2 62.3 64.3 66.3 68.0 69.5 70.6 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 59 60 62 59 59 52 42 59 46 58 77 76 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 37. 43. 48. 54. 58. 59. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/11/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)