* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 10/11/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 54 64 68 71 76 82 87 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 54 64 68 71 76 82 87 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 30 35 41 48 56 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 3 8 10 13 12 15 11 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -5 -5 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 298 345 354 328 130 126 115 82 75 79 75 57 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 150 150 148 146 143 141 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 73 74 74 76 73 67 61 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 9 13 16 15 16 18 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 22 26 29 35 53 54 49 53 67 75 94 200 MB DIV 78 61 97 129 119 136 154 143 95 78 52 43 60 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2471 2354 2238 2124 2010 1794 1584 1367 1170 1015 915 810 724 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.1 136.2 137.3 138.3 140.3 142.2 144.2 146.0 147.8 149.4 151.0 152.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 20 21 19 17 19 14 7 9 15 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 15. 16. 19. 23. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 34. 44. 48. 51. 56. 62. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 10/11/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##