* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 67 74 80 83 90 92 95 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 67 74 80 83 90 92 95 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 54 65 75 79 81 83 84 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 6 5 10 13 13 8 14 6 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -8 -7 -5 -1 -4 1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 83 83 63 73 289 276 256 248 265 311 289 280 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 152 154 155 155 152 146 147 148 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 146 146 147 148 147 142 134 133 131 129 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 53 54 52 52 54 52 53 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -44 -44 -42 -37 -27 -14 -14 -13 -28 -15 -31 -23 200 MB DIV -4 14 3 -4 10 11 30 14 14 7 43 18 38 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 3 5 7 6 4 6 LAND (KM) 891 840 800 768 649 412 194 113 222 220 287 359 457 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.4 57.4 58.5 59.6 61.8 63.9 65.8 67.5 68.8 69.9 70.5 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 65 65 58 53 45 40 54 74 75 69 62 57 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 7. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 37. 44. 50. 53. 60. 62. 65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)