* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 38 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 38 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 33 36 38 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 18 15 16 11 9 10 10 13 12 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -6 -6 -4 -5 -5 -2 1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 211 212 212 201 193 210 200 211 213 238 232 233 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 137 134 134 134 135 136 137 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 134 133 132 127 125 124 124 125 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 65 64 63 63 63 59 57 51 49 45 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 68 53 52 52 41 34 34 24 24 18 24 8 200 MB DIV 58 56 47 45 22 32 29 22 7 -12 2 -11 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1852 1793 1736 1682 1632 1543 1476 1416 1364 1313 1254 1233 1239 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.3 39.1 39.9 40.8 42.4 43.8 44.8 45.6 46.3 47.0 47.4 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 17 15 15 18 26 25 24 24 23 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 13. 13. 15. 17. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED