* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 10/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 41 54 61 64 67 73 78 80 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 41 54 61 64 67 73 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 27 31 35 39 44 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 3 4 8 14 12 12 11 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 298 345 356 328 138 148 136 108 76 77 54 60 41 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 148 146 143 140 140 142 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 71 73 73 72 75 73 67 61 59 59 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 11 15 16 16 17 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 27 29 34 48 64 56 52 63 68 70 75 200 MB DIV 62 97 128 118 103 157 133 133 75 62 40 54 68 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 2360 2243 2126 2014 1903 1700 1502 1284 1124 1018 940 873 776 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.5 13.9 13.7 13.3 13.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.2 137.2 138.2 139.2 141.0 142.7 144.5 146.0 147.4 148.8 150.2 151.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 21 19 18 18 20 9 4 6 12 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 15. 14. 16. 21. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 21. 34. 41. 44. 47. 53. 58. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 10/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##