* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 54 61 67 72 77 82 85 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 54 61 67 72 77 82 85 86 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 53 62 69 75 80 85 89 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 7 3 16 15 9 8 10 8 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 -7 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 84 81 59 64 288 282 253 271 238 306 328 314 277 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 155 157 153 149 146 146 147 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 147 146 147 149 144 137 132 131 130 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 53 54 55 53 53 52 52 52 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -46 -44 -37 -27 -23 -6 -21 -21 -31 -29 -39 -42 200 MB DIV 15 4 1 24 15 18 15 -4 3 -2 6 26 10 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 812 781 715 602 489 263 109 155 187 195 251 300 379 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.1 61.1 63.2 65.1 66.8 68.2 69.4 70.2 70.8 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 56 52 43 39 45 69 74 69 70 65 63 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 24. 31. 37. 42. 47. 52. 55. 56. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED