* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 45 48 49 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 45 48 49 52 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 43 47 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 14 13 9 5 5 4 6 13 10 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 1 0 -3 0 2 5 6 1 SHEAR DIR 213 211 199 195 202 235 199 284 223 285 283 296 281 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 137 136 135 135 136 138 141 141 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 135 132 129 127 125 125 127 130 129 129 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 62 62 60 59 56 54 52 52 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 73 59 54 57 57 43 40 26 18 15 21 21 13 200 MB DIV 64 43 38 21 9 16 41 7 1 3 -16 -7 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1730 1660 1593 1542 1495 1414 1363 1300 1242 1166 1117 1096 1127 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 14.7 14.4 13.9 13.5 13.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.9 40.9 41.8 42.6 44.2 45.2 45.9 46.4 46.9 47.1 47.3 47.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 14 18 25 24 27 30 30 27 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 20. 23. 24. 27. 28. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED