* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 10/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 35 41 57 69 76 80 81 87 90 87 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 35 41 57 69 76 80 81 87 90 87 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 54 61 66 70 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 8 10 12 13 11 12 10 9 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 2 4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 14 35 60 93 94 118 112 75 66 73 62 71 53 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 148 147 145 143 141 141 142 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 72 73 74 72 65 60 60 61 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 13 15 16 16 17 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 29 31 36 55 55 46 43 57 56 56 41 200 MB DIV 116 150 128 111 126 124 102 92 69 57 82 51 57 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 2249 2135 2022 1925 1828 1654 1484 1323 1187 1089 984 884 784 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.3 138.3 139.2 140.0 141.5 142.9 144.2 145.5 146.8 148.2 149.6 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 18 17 19 20 11 5 6 10 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 13. 14. 15. 16. 22. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 37. 49. 56. 60. 61. 67. 70. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##