* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 53 49 45 41 37 35 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 53 49 45 41 37 35 33 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 58 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 34 37 40 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 187 197 207 222 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 127 118 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 115 108 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 42 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 24 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 26 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 54 51 72 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -24 -39 -28 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1129 1193 1132 1148 1163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.8 33.9 34.8 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 62.9 61.1 58.4 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 21 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 15 CX,CY: 3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -27. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED