* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 55 63 70 77 82 86 87 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 55 63 70 77 82 86 87 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 46 53 58 64 70 78 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 5 10 11 12 4 6 6 11 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -5 -7 -5 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 50 49 259 272 261 238 197 203 340 325 329 272 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 155 157 157 153 148 147 148 147 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 148 150 150 149 144 136 134 132 129 128 125 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 53 53 52 52 52 51 50 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -30 -19 -12 -12 -3 -13 -26 -26 -35 -30 -40 200 MB DIV -5 -1 24 22 20 17 4 0 10 12 15 20 15 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -4 -3 -2 -3 3 2 3 0 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 816 772 686 562 438 221 69 155 147 166 203 244 277 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.5 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.2 59.3 60.5 61.6 63.6 65.6 67.2 68.6 69.8 70.6 71.2 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 72 75 76 1 79 76 1 1 3 2 1 1 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 33. 40. 47. 52. 56. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/12/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)