* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 10/12/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 35 42 57 67 73 78 83 84 86 85 V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 35 42 57 67 73 78 83 84 86 85 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 33 39 45 51 57 62 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 8 10 11 13 12 10 10 12 8 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -7 -3 -3 0 3 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 44 62 78 87 107 108 95 76 74 57 68 45 47 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 146 142 140 139 139 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 75 75 74 68 60 57 56 57 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 16 16 18 21 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 23 28 41 52 47 43 45 48 51 36 39 200 MB DIV 142 118 112 108 119 96 86 65 42 33 30 7 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 2158 2051 1945 1850 1755 1593 1434 1288 1163 1056 924 814 683 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.3 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 137.1 138.1 139.0 139.8 140.6 141.9 143.0 144.2 145.5 146.7 148.1 149.2 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 22 22 22 18 15 18 19 20 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 12. 14. 19. 20. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 22. 37. 47. 53. 58. 63. 64. 66. 65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##