* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 57 66 73 81 87 92 95 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 49 57 66 73 81 87 92 95 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 46 52 58 64 72 80 85 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 9 11 13 6 9 3 3 14 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 -1 -4 -2 0 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 41 39 271 277 279 234 242 179 318 5 328 268 237 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 155 157 157 152 146 145 146 146 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 147 149 151 149 142 133 130 128 127 125 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 53 53 49 51 50 50 52 53 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 11 13 16 19 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -23 -15 -10 -13 -7 -16 -24 -32 -33 -33 -30 -21 200 MB DIV 1 17 13 19 16 19 12 19 5 11 18 31 53 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 2 3 1 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 762 724 661 545 429 211 118 222 251 279 311 367 408 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 58.5 59.6 60.6 61.7 63.7 65.6 67.1 68.3 69.1 69.7 69.6 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 11 10 10 8 6 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 72 75 1 1 79 76 76 69 5 1 68 70 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 36. 43. 51. 57. 62. 65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/12/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED