* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 10/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 42 49 61 68 73 75 78 84 81 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 42 49 61 68 73 75 78 84 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 56 60 64 67 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 9 14 12 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -1 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 79 82 82 97 99 92 88 85 73 45 26 61 65 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 146 143 140 139 139 139 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 75 76 73 66 61 59 57 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 17 16 17 17 19 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 33 42 49 51 45 47 52 48 51 42 47 200 MB DIV 124 126 144 146 110 83 73 49 7 31 42 47 33 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2044 1940 1835 1745 1655 1497 1365 1245 1151 1047 893 737 576 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.0 13.7 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.9 139.8 140.6 141.3 142.5 143.5 144.6 145.7 146.8 148.3 149.6 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 22 21 22 20 17 17 15 19 19 20 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 12. 12. 15. 20. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 17. 24. 36. 43. 48. 50. 53. 59. 56. 55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 10/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##