* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 50 58 68 76 85 94 99 103 107 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 50 58 62 70 79 88 93 97 100 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 45 49 58 60 68 75 83 88 93 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 10 11 9 7 4 3 7 7 9 3 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -6 -1 0 0 1 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 281 288 285 291 241 99 188 7 56 28 148 171 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 155 156 157 155 151 147 144 144 146 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 151 151 151 147 141 133 128 126 128 131 131 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 50 49 50 49 52 52 52 52 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 14 17 19 21 26 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -8 -4 -7 -1 7 2 -20 -17 -26 -28 -31 15 200 MB DIV 9 12 4 9 29 31 22 0 27 16 44 38 38 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 0 6 7 8 8 3 7 5 0 LAND (KM) 658 619 541 419 301 92 22 152 196 262 308 411 558 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.5 18.7 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.2 23.2 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.1 61.1 62.3 63.4 65.2 66.8 67.8 68.2 68.4 68.6 68.6 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 6 4 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 76 1 1 4 3 1 4 2 4 5 1 72 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 23. 33. 42. 50. 59. 64. 68. 72. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)