* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952014 10/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 37 43 50 62 70 77 80 82 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 30 37 43 50 62 70 77 80 82 81 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 45 53 63 72 79 83 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 14 13 11 13 12 16 11 15 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -9 -8 -7 -6 -1 -2 2 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 97 89 107 125 129 115 73 65 51 35 45 48 38 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 145 143 142 141 142 142 141 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 73 72 69 61 57 57 59 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 15 16 16 17 18 19 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 46 52 56 61 54 61 68 67 60 47 23 200 MB DIV 131 135 131 94 72 78 55 74 10 25 28 79 30 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 3 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1801 1712 1624 1547 1472 1332 1231 1152 1093 1024 952 858 741 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.2 13.1 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.9 141.7 142.4 143.1 144.3 145.3 146.3 147.3 148.2 149.1 150.0 151.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 21 20 19 19 21 19 20 19 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 25. 37. 45. 52. 55. 57. 56. 58. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952014 INVEST 10/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952014 INVEST 10/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##