* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 58 66 75 86 94 101 105 109 108 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 58 66 75 86 94 101 105 109 108 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 52 56 64 71 79 86 91 94 95 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 13 7 5 1 5 3 5 5 0 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -6 -3 5 0 3 3 2 5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 280 286 282 237 345 105 42 23 347 213 205 206 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 157 157 154 150 145 144 144 146 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 149 151 150 145 137 130 128 127 127 130 129 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 50 50 52 51 54 55 56 55 47 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 16 17 20 23 26 30 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -3 -4 1 4 1 -5 -12 -9 -10 0 20 -11 200 MB DIV -2 11 22 31 37 11 32 17 39 57 47 67 0 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 3 4 8 8 10 5 6 7 3 2 LAND (KM) 648 564 464 348 233 38 111 222 271 346 430 528 632 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.7 61.7 62.7 63.7 65.4 66.5 67.3 67.7 67.9 67.9 67.7 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 1 77 1 68 4 1 74 69 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 26. 35. 46. 54. 61. 65. 69. 68. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED