* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952014 10/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 40 46 56 65 72 75 76 79 80 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 40 46 56 65 72 75 76 79 80 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 51 58 65 69 72 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 13 11 10 13 8 10 12 15 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -9 -9 -7 -6 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 105 112 107 117 124 84 67 58 39 26 36 24 50 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 146 145 143 141 140 140 140 140 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 73 72 66 59 58 58 60 58 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 45 48 49 49 54 60 63 73 68 58 37 200 MB DIV 146 140 91 61 76 91 103 53 71 57 68 38 57 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -1 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1801 1717 1633 1549 1465 1311 1191 1112 1023 954 873 778 655 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 140.1 140.9 141.6 142.3 143.1 144.4 145.6 146.6 147.7 148.6 149.5 150.4 151.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 21 20 18 18 19 19 20 19 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 21. 31. 40. 47. 50. 51. 54. 55. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952014 INVEST 10/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952014 INVEST 10/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##