* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP952014 10/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 59 67 71 74 78 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 59 67 71 74 78 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 41 47 52 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 10 9 7 6 6 12 12 14 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -9 -7 -6 -6 -3 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 120 125 129 141 137 80 55 76 45 31 51 30 21 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 143 141 139 139 140 138 137 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 71 68 60 56 59 58 57 57 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 17 18 19 20 22 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 47 48 56 51 53 59 63 64 68 39 28 200 MB DIV 127 76 58 61 67 93 60 55 49 38 53 41 78 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1715 1628 1541 1453 1365 1217 1080 962 854 766 660 538 379 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.7 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.7 142.4 143.1 143.8 145.1 146.5 147.9 149.3 150.6 151.8 152.9 154.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 21 19 19 16 16 17 17 17 20 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 18. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 34. 42. 46. 49. 53. 53. 54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP952014 INVEST 10/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952014 INVEST 10/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##