* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 75 79 87 94 98 100 100 99 96 95 V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 75 79 87 94 98 100 100 99 96 95 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 75 78 82 85 88 90 90 89 85 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 7 5 8 9 9 8 13 14 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 4 3 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 237 206 203 186 138 213 331 315 308 257 209 231 222 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 153 150 151 151 150 149 143 134 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 147 145 142 137 134 132 130 130 126 119 112 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 53 54 55 57 57 61 55 49 33 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 22 25 28 30 32 33 36 39 44 850 MB ENV VOR -6 9 2 6 8 6 0 -9 7 18 67 97 66 200 MB DIV 34 32 46 59 72 24 58 40 77 65 52 18 0 700-850 TADV 6 10 15 9 11 9 8 11 16 16 5 11 -3 LAND (KM) 349 242 161 149 189 344 445 558 665 821 1033 1142 1158 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.7 23.3 24.5 25.4 26.7 28.5 30.6 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.4 64.3 65.1 65.9 67.1 68.0 68.3 67.9 67.3 66.6 65.1 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 5 6 8 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 77 74 76 76 73 73 67 59 49 35 26 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 15. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 27. 34. 38. 40. 40. 39. 36. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 7( 11) 10( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 17( 18) 13( 29) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED