* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 34 35 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 31 34 35 37 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 7 10 18 13 17 16 22 22 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 3 1 0 6 4 1 5 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 217 210 212 229 219 257 269 272 278 258 233 240 226 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 131 131 132 132 133 134 133 134 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 121 121 119 120 119 121 125 125 123 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 66 64 61 56 55 54 58 57 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 1 2 1 19 36 49 52 58 39 42 26 200 MB DIV 45 46 36 19 16 11 7 7 15 27 41 17 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 1 2 LAND (KM) 1432 1413 1392 1370 1349 1319 1277 1262 1342 1559 1785 1936 1997 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.8 15.7 17.5 19.5 21.1 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.3 44.9 45.3 45.7 46.2 46.6 46.7 46.8 46.0 45.4 45.6 46.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 7 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 35 35 36 38 39 39 41 42 41 44 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED