* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 54 62 68 70 74 76 77 73 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 54 62 68 70 74 76 77 73 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 48 53 58 63 67 68 68 67 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 9 9 5 6 6 5 5 5 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 0 2 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 112 115 82 62 49 82 52 36 23 18 59 273 245 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 143 142 141 140 140 139 137 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 65 63 63 63 63 61 59 58 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 16 17 19 19 22 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 38 31 25 23 29 44 31 29 19 22 22 200 MB DIV 87 73 62 63 49 54 54 3 28 72 105 64 20 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1533 1469 1406 1357 1309 1205 1098 974 831 644 428 259 122 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.7 16.9 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 142.3 142.8 143.3 143.7 144.1 145.1 146.3 147.5 148.8 150.2 151.8 153.0 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 20 18 17 18 21 20 18 14 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 8. 10. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 19. 27. 33. 35. 39. 41. 42. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##