* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 59 65 66 68 68 68 67 63 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 59 65 66 68 68 68 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 53 57 60 62 63 62 61 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 8 5 4 5 2 10 2 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 1 1 -2 5 -3 -5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 104 60 42 47 49 41 23 27 30 353 337 293 307 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 141 140 138 137 136 136 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 69 64 62 59 58 60 60 64 64 65 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 17 19 18 19 20 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 27 22 26 37 49 29 24 0 -12 -15 -2 200 MB DIV 63 72 70 58 47 30 22 31 47 47 55 45 39 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1479 1422 1365 1311 1258 1130 994 871 767 641 487 350 240 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 17.0 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.1 143.5 144.0 144.4 145.6 146.9 148.0 148.9 149.9 151.0 152.0 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 18 19 17 18 21 20 18 14 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##