* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 65 72 78 80 78 72 69 62 58 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 65 72 78 80 78 72 69 62 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 60 63 69 72 73 70 65 60 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 7 4 6 4 9 2 11 18 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 2 3 2 2 7 -2 -7 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 76 46 35 64 70 80 31 358 310 336 326 348 339 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 141 140 138 137 137 136 134 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 65 63 59 60 63 66 66 71 71 70 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 25 24 25 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 20 20 22 27 30 13 2 -13 -14 -7 0 200 MB DIV 65 84 82 62 23 35 37 50 30 111 97 66 19 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1424 1373 1322 1262 1202 1069 961 845 709 576 460 313 169 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.1 143.5 143.9 144.5 145.0 146.2 147.2 148.3 149.5 150.6 151.4 152.6 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 18 16 19 17 17 22 19 17 13 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 10. 11. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 27. 33. 35. 33. 28. 24. 17. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##