* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 31 42 54 63 69 67 64 60 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 31 42 54 63 69 67 64 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 35 39 45 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 6 7 8 9 11 7 9 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 1 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 88 68 57 71 70 134 113 106 79 92 102 250 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 158 160 160 160 157 154 156 159 161 161 158 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.2 -53.1 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 5 3 6 4 8 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 86 86 85 84 82 80 80 78 77 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 12 15 16 16 13 9 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 56 48 39 16 29 43 53 58 60 74 84 200 MB DIV 42 52 88 117 134 151 134 149 122 112 106 102 61 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -4 -1 2 2 LAND (KM) 306 323 336 346 356 393 368 317 253 140 7 -131 -129 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.7 15.9 17.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.6 92.2 92.8 93.4 94.7 95.9 96.8 97.5 97.9 97.8 97.4 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 7 5 1 21 2 1 8 2 47 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 14. 9. 4. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 22. 34. 43. 49. 47. 44. 40. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##