* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 103 106 106 107 109 106 105 101 98 81 67 V (KT) LAND 100 102 103 106 106 107 109 106 105 101 98 81 66 V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 101 100 100 98 97 95 90 83 76 61 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 8 11 12 7 15 13 19 36 58 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 4 4 8 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 169 157 176 249 293 298 259 233 196 215 197 217 226 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.4 26.6 26.1 15.8 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 151 151 151 149 142 131 124 120 76 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 137 137 134 133 132 126 117 112 109 73 69 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 50 50 54 59 46 38 34 38 33 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 22 22 25 28 29 31 33 37 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 0 -3 -14 -30 -3 24 45 23 40 96 74 200 MB DIV 53 60 37 36 29 54 79 54 82 56 63 55 52 700-850 TADV 11 11 13 11 7 13 19 34 34 28 10 38 28 LAND (KM) 258 350 411 452 505 623 838 1069 1034 928 553 286 178 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.2 27.1 29.2 31.7 35.2 39.7 44.4 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.4 67.2 67.7 68.3 68.7 68.3 67.2 65.7 63.7 61.2 56.8 50.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 8 11 13 17 22 26 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 74 75 76 74 71 66 54 36 24 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -24. -31. -35. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 2. 5. 7. 6. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 8. 11. 12. 15. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 9. 6. 5. 1. -2. -19. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 27( 57) 27( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 23 22( 40) 25( 55) 25( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)