* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 30 27 25 22 23 26 28 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 30 27 25 22 23 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 30 28 26 24 23 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 25 25 22 28 26 35 30 37 20 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 0 0 4 4 4 2 -2 -5 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 252 246 253 257 246 239 235 224 221 219 214 210 176 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 125 125 127 131 134 139 138 137 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 113 114 117 122 124 124 120 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -55.1 -55.1 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 60 61 65 69 68 61 51 40 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 1 12 28 45 39 22 -5 0 -14 -42 -66 200 MB DIV 38 24 17 15 31 34 37 3 38 10 -26 -12 12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 1 1 3 5 2 5 3 2 8 LAND (KM) 1615 1627 1639 1672 1705 1824 2019 2240 2428 2522 2386 2241 2047 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.9 19.9 22.2 24.3 25.8 26.9 27.9 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 42.6 42.8 42.7 42.7 42.2 41.9 41.7 41.9 42.1 42.7 43.9 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 8 11 11 9 7 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 30 29 30 29 31 34 32 30 29 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -7. -4. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 10/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 10/14/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED