* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 70 74 77 81 80 79 73 65 61 59 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 70 74 77 81 80 79 73 65 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 67 72 75 77 77 74 70 65 60 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 3 4 6 9 1 14 11 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 4 5 7 0 7 -2 -3 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 35 54 82 15 59 4 9 325 317 346 341 334 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 138 137 137 136 134 133 134 136 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 59 59 65 63 69 69 68 70 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 19 20 21 23 23 26 25 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 22 23 26 27 9 7 -12 -13 -13 5 17 200 MB DIV 53 50 55 35 0 23 25 47 63 57 75 50 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 1 -2 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1322 1264 1206 1139 1072 957 832 710 592 452 321 183 49 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.4 144.9 145.5 146.1 147.1 148.3 149.4 150.4 151.5 152.5 153.6 154.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 18 17 17 19 20 19 17 13 15 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 11. 10. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 26. 25. 24. 18. 10. 6. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##