* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 29 34 43 50 57 61 63 65 67 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 29 34 43 50 57 61 54 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 34 37 36 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 4 9 10 11 13 10 5 2 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -6 -6 -3 0 -5 -3 -4 -4 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 59 73 68 95 122 144 129 108 111 134 208 221 238 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 161 161 161 158 156 157 160 164 163 158 157 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 83 87 87 87 85 83 79 79 77 77 77 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 44 37 25 21 37 48 57 56 68 81 95 200 MB DIV 49 87 120 132 146 162 164 142 95 86 60 56 47 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 0 3 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 315 325 337 346 370 358 297 222 113 -12 -113 -218 -211 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.5 93.2 93.8 94.5 95.8 96.9 97.6 98.2 98.4 98.4 98.3 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 5 3 1 21 2 2 12 1 47 35 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 23. 30. 37. 41. 43. 45. 47. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##