* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 113 113 113 112 111 109 107 102 88 69 53 V (KT) LAND 110 112 113 113 113 112 111 109 107 102 88 62 52 V (KT) LGE mod 110 113 112 110 108 103 101 95 88 81 70 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 7 7 9 12 9 11 17 29 54 66 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 4 3 1 5 -1 -2 -11 SHEAR DIR 174 193 216 270 275 293 254 249 223 204 208 221 243 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.9 26.0 20.5 11.6 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 152 150 145 135 126 119 87 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 136 135 132 128 120 114 108 81 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 6 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 52 52 56 50 41 32 35 31 39 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 24 26 27 29 31 35 32 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -4 -17 -25 -22 9 47 44 11 30 35 40 200 MB DIV 66 47 35 27 33 72 53 76 94 57 59 65 35 700-850 TADV 9 12 9 9 7 14 32 51 37 20 14 74 48 LAND (KM) 366 443 485 530 587 760 994 1032 1047 729 370 -8 572 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.8 26.4 28.4 30.8 33.6 37.6 42.6 47.1 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.8 67.4 67.9 68.4 68.4 67.6 66.3 64.3 61.7 58.3 53.1 45.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 12 15 19 25 29 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 78 63 51 48 46 33 38 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -25. -34. -42. -48. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. 5. 5. 3. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 10. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -22. -41. -57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 30( 65) 30( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 16 9( 24) 15( 35) 21( 49) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED