* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 73 80 85 89 86 82 74 70 67 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 73 80 85 89 86 82 74 70 67 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 72 77 79 79 79 78 75 71 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 2 2 6 3 7 4 6 8 8 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 2 3 0 -2 0 -4 4 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 48 63 118 47 65 357 22 62 78 331 304 284 285 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 139 139 136 135 136 136 138 141 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 58 59 63 60 61 63 68 70 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 24 26 27 26 26 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 21 24 21 35 31 35 24 21 21 24 40 200 MB DIV 52 54 32 -2 17 20 66 55 52 83 79 34 34 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 1 2 -1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1238 1169 1099 1021 945 775 606 443 284 142 34 83 144 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.4 146.0 146.8 147.6 149.3 150.8 152.3 153.8 154.9 155.7 156.7 157.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 5 7 8 12 18 15 12 11 23 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 10. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 25. 30. 34. 31. 27. 19. 15. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##