* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 112 112 112 111 108 108 103 96 81 64 48 V (KT) LAND 110 112 112 112 112 111 108 108 103 96 67 57 41 V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 111 108 106 102 98 92 84 75 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 6 9 10 9 15 12 17 28 32 45 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 15 11 2 SHEAR DIR 186 219 272 289 281 258 250 218 191 189 209 239 265 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.1 22.1 10.2 10.8 9.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 152 151 149 139 129 120 94 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 133 132 133 125 116 109 88 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 50 53 56 44 34 33 42 48 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 22 24 25 27 28 31 33 36 34 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -10 -23 -23 -2 38 41 -1 -22 -4 67 13 200 MB DIV 50 41 19 22 54 84 53 97 60 94 76 14 -26 700-850 TADV 11 9 9 8 11 16 37 25 38 52 1 54 63 LAND (KM) 431 487 554 607 665 869 1041 1041 763 387 -3 573 1185 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.0 25.6 27.4 29.9 33.0 36.9 42.0 48.2 51.8 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.6 68.1 68.5 68.8 68.4 66.9 65.0 63.0 59.3 53.7 46.4 37.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 8 12 16 19 25 33 33 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 64 51 48 44 37 42 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -26. -36. -44. -52. -57. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 9. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -7. -14. -29. -46. -62. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 7( 13) 8( 20) 16( 32) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED