* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 71 74 79 79 79 76 69 61 56 54 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 71 74 79 79 79 76 69 61 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 69 70 70 69 68 67 65 63 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 0 1 3 7 2 2 2 11 20 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 7 8 3 -4 1 0 0 4 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 80 126 271 358 283 338 315 249 206 280 280 280 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 139 138 137 136 137 140 142 145 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 58 58 57 54 57 60 65 69 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 26 24 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 28 27 33 40 44 36 17 7 26 23 30 200 MB DIV 22 9 10 42 18 41 69 56 34 78 52 16 53 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 3 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 1142 1063 984 907 831 660 467 291 118 33 106 33 16 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.8 146.6 147.3 148.1 148.8 150.5 152.2 153.7 155.0 156.2 157.2 158.2 159.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 7 8 8 9 16 16 11 12 32 35 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 8. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 19. 19. 16. 9. 1. -4. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##