* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 51 52 53 52 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 51 37 30 28 27 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 40 47 37 30 28 27 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 8 6 7 6 10 16 18 21 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -3 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 37 42 73 63 86 65 91 241 258 255 263 258 260 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 162 162 159 160 162 159 157 155 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 87 86 85 84 83 81 78 73 69 70 72 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 26 13 8 5 21 28 39 32 40 50 63 84 200 MB DIV 119 125 136 115 114 105 73 62 44 63 51 62 50 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 308 308 312 316 328 200 60 -105 -185 -94 -15 17 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.5 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.8 93.5 94.2 94.9 96.2 97.1 97.6 97.7 97.5 97.2 97.2 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 13 16 33 41 44 22 33 37 18 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 26. 27. 28. 27. 25. 25. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##