* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 48 51 55 56 55 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 48 51 42 32 28 27 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 52 46 33 29 27 27 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 9 7 8 10 1 4 11 13 16 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 1 2 -3 -7 -3 -6 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 55 59 60 73 61 136 263 262 261 269 265 268 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 161 160 158 159 161 160 157 157 156 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 7 5 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 83 82 81 80 79 76 79 80 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 5 5 10 27 31 34 40 57 63 87 100 200 MB DIV 115 133 119 110 113 91 63 76 49 67 59 73 52 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 380 366 371 376 317 193 80 -47 -169 -118 -52 3 29 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.1 19.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.7 94.4 95.0 95.6 96.6 97.0 97.2 97.1 96.9 96.6 96.3 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 16 21 41 43 42 46 30 35 6 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 26. 30. 31. 30. 29. 29. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##