* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 111 111 112 111 110 103 96 80 66 49 32 V (KT) LAND 110 110 111 111 112 111 110 103 96 80 66 49 32 V (KT) LGE mod 110 108 106 104 102 100 94 87 74 57 50 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 12 7 17 13 23 32 37 38 44 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 -1 -1 1 -1 0 0 2 1 1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 259 254 275 271 241 244 207 207 206 237 262 279 296 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.0 26.1 18.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 151 150 149 139 128 121 82 72 72 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 133 134 126 117 111 78 71 71 70 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.6 -54.0 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 56 56 57 47 35 33 39 49 49 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 28 32 32 36 32 27 19 10 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -18 -23 -23 -3 30 55 1 -28 0 25 -12 -36 200 MB DIV 26 24 49 58 77 43 98 50 83 58 -22 -15 4 700-850 TADV 12 10 11 10 17 36 32 36 7 -11 23 -17 20 LAND (KM) 484 555 630 742 854 1019 1022 682 306 142 975 1275 556 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.3 27.3 30.0 33.3 37.8 43.3 48.3 52.2 54.0 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.6 68.9 68.8 68.6 67.1 65.1 62.5 58.4 51.1 40.4 29.5 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 13 17 22 28 33 38 37 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 68 67 61 57 49 33 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -28. -39. -50. -57. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 9. 12. 8. 3. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -7. -14. -30. -44. -61. -78. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 23( 41) 30( 59) 2( 60) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED