* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 59 56 53 49 47 47 50 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 56 58 59 59 56 53 49 47 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 52 51 49 47 45 44 43 43 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 10 13 8 7 9 17 20 24 28 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 2 1 1 0 -2 1 0 2 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 360 345 327 335 334 293 215 230 278 279 273 272 254 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 139 138 137 137 139 142 143 144 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 61 58 60 60 63 68 68 63 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 23 23 23 22 20 20 19 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 24 24 18 17 5 -1 -4 11 15 15 18 200 MB DIV 27 16 7 24 37 44 62 63 77 46 40 43 73 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 2 0 3 6 9 6 8 LAND (KM) 939 856 776 690 607 415 206 54 106 100 49 30 67 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.4 20.9 21.7 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 148.0 148.9 149.7 150.5 151.4 153.0 154.6 155.9 157.1 157.9 158.4 159.2 160.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 12 14 16 14 17 35 43 49 38 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -8. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##