* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 65 64 64 65 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 56 65 64 64 46 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 62 49 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 21 18 20 14 9 12 6 3 1 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -5 -2 -3 1 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 68 72 73 74 65 53 44 51 75 177 313 312 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 149 150 152 155 159 163 163 158 157 155 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.2 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 8 10 7 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 79 78 75 72 69 73 79 80 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 14 15 10 7 6 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 24 34 39 49 51 55 69 70 89 103 124 200 MB DIV 169 184 158 128 100 96 89 99 100 100 112 60 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 555 558 570 558 545 477 372 232 70 -85 -192 -244 -198 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.8 13.8 15.0 16.3 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.7 100.4 100.8 101.2 101.5 101.4 101.0 100.3 99.5 98.9 98.6 98.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 21 23 27 47 62 46 31 46 43 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 0. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 40. 39. 39. 40. 42. 43. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 147.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##