* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 112 110 108 103 96 79 57 38 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 112 110 108 103 96 79 57 38 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 111 107 103 95 88 79 60 48 42 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 10 16 10 19 29 38 46 53 55 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 0 3 3 10 8 5 -1 9 7 SHEAR DIR 275 255 255 247 222 207 204 188 221 249 283 299 291 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.3 24.7 12.2 11.5 10.6 12.8 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 147 141 130 122 110 74 74 72 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 132 126 117 111 102 72 72 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 56 50 44 36 33 39 48 47 48 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 27 28 32 34 36 34 26 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -18 -6 9 20 48 4 -7 -21 9 19 -2 7 200 MB DIV 48 65 91 49 31 112 75 131 78 -3 -18 -12 -23 700-850 TADV 9 8 15 18 30 22 43 40 64 68 25 59 20 LAND (KM) 601 710 818 969 1040 1033 859 480 11 698 1380 698 269 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.0 26.9 28.2 29.5 32.1 35.9 40.9 46.6 50.8 53.0 54.5 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.5 68.2 67.7 67.3 65.5 63.6 60.1 53.7 43.9 30.8 20.7 13.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 14 18 25 33 37 40 36 27 22 HEAT CONTENT 49 34 37 46 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -23. -35. -49. -60. -67. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 7. -1. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -36. -58. -77. -92.-105. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 29( 66) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 16 43( 52) 3( 54) 0( 54) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED