* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 51 52 51 52 53 49 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 51 52 51 52 53 49 45 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 46 45 45 44 43 41 39 38 37 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 8 6 7 15 15 20 22 20 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 2 2 6 -2 -3 1 1 4 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 12 354 359 359 327 268 235 282 274 280 269 276 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 138 137 139 141 142 144 147 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 56 56 59 61 65 66 63 61 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 21 21 19 20 21 19 19 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 16 25 26 18 21 2 3 -8 -6 1 11 13 14 200 MB DIV -3 9 34 44 54 46 83 104 74 55 48 65 76 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 7 13 12 11 11 LAND (KM) 876 781 688 595 501 320 139 105 115 66 103 45 158 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.3 17.7 19.0 20.0 20.7 20.9 21.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 148.9 149.8 150.7 151.6 152.5 154.3 156.0 156.9 157.3 158.0 159.1 160.1 161.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 15 15 13 17 33 37 44 52 46 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. 0. 2. -1. -1. 2. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. -1. -5. -5. -3. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##