* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 52 53 55 62 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 52 53 55 62 65 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 34 39 47 56 67 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 20 18 10 6 9 2 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 0 0 2 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 60 56 56 62 47 50 88 69 58 80 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 148 150 156 160 161 160 159 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 76 75 70 70 68 70 69 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 14 12 8 6 9 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 13 22 30 48 62 68 79 84 107 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 158 119 95 110 103 91 100 132 133 79 53 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 651 622 596 534 475 308 161 79 47 30 36 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 7 8 6 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 19 21 28 50 38 31 28 20 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -6. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 28. 31. 37. 40. 41. 41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##