* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 125 120 117 111 104 93 71 44 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 126 125 120 117 111 104 93 71 44 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 126 122 116 109 97 88 76 56 45 39 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 7 13 13 16 18 27 40 51 55 51 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 3 1 0 9 15 11 6 3 17 6 SHEAR DIR 275 233 223 223 224 226 185 199 235 266 293 296 281 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.0 20.6 10.4 11.0 11.9 14.0 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 143 137 129 119 89 73 73 73 75 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 134 129 123 116 110 84 71 71 72 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 50 46 41 35 38 42 49 44 46 45 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 33 35 36 38 34 24 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -4 10 16 30 37 -3 -23 -36 -1 -3 2 91 200 MB DIV 54 94 68 45 80 90 128 92 26 -6 -19 -1 11 700-850 TADV 6 9 14 28 22 30 31 94 40 37 85 21 -27 LAND (KM) 667 785 903 1067 1062 1090 753 450 261 1033 1118 347 -33 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.6 29.0 30.3 33.1 37.3 42.5 47.8 51.1 52.2 53.8 55.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.3 67.8 67.0 66.3 64.4 61.9 57.0 49.3 39.1 26.7 15.3 4.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 15 15 20 27 35 37 38 37 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 44 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -18. -31. -46. -62. -74. -81. -85. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 4. -6. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -5. -8. -14. -21. -32. -54. -81.-101.-114.-122. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 32( 74) 29( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 34( 50) 1( 50) 0( 50) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)