* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 48 51 48 47 47 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 8 5 7 7 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 49 50 44 345 246 267 259 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 29.5 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 161 164 165 158 155 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 5 4 8 5 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 73 69 69 65 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 17 17 14 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 33 35 47 65 64 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 94 85 63 63 63 110 80 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 328 266 204 116 32 -94 -237 -217 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 8 9 8 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 39 41 40 33 47 42 0 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 23. 26. 23. 22. 22. 21. 22. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##