* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 41 50 51 46 46 46 46 48 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 41 50 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 4 7 4 13 11 13 22 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 0 1 -2 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 60 57 69 39 7 262 206 188 247 278 279 265 268 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 155 157 159 162 164 159 157 154 153 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 73 71 68 65 69 73 70 68 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 18 20 16 9 7 7 7 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 34 45 57 58 73 78 82 84 82 98 94 200 MB DIV 86 86 69 70 83 95 112 89 102 65 22 20 34 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 0 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 392 334 285 233 181 78 -33 -160 -270 -275 -253 -248 -258 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.7 20.5 20.9 21.0 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.8 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 22 29 35 39 40 32 44 50 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 6. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 25. 26. 21. 21. 21. 21. 23. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##