* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 117 116 111 105 93 72 50 36 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 120 117 117 116 111 105 93 72 50 36 27 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 120 115 109 104 98 90 80 59 46 40 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 6 12 19 13 33 45 52 42 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 -1 7 13 14 6 8 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 210 237 210 230 192 199 231 256 273 313 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.2 22.9 10.8 9.9 10.9 13.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 135 131 121 99 73 73 73 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 124 120 118 112 93 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 43 41 40 36 37 42 49 46 42 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 32 33 32 34 35 35 30 28 27 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 22 33 21 7 1 -16 45 102 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 51 92 91 71 122 76 44 4 -13 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 15 18 25 29 35 59 66 -24 3 45 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 1016 1093 1069 1069 850 467 151 987 1156 271 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.5 29.6 31.0 32.3 36.2 41.6 47.5 52.6 54.9 54.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.8 67.1 66.5 65.8 65.0 62.5 58.2 50.8 40.4 27.8 14.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 19 27 36 41 40 39 40 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 26 8 3 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -19. -31. -48. -62. -74. -80. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -9. -15. -27. -48. -70. -84. -93. -97.-102. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 32( 54) 29( 68) 27( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 70 19( 76) 0( 76) 0( 76) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED