* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 55 56 56 54 52 46 44 46 51 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 55 56 56 54 52 46 44 46 51 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 50 50 48 45 43 42 41 40 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 8 10 12 18 21 23 29 24 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 1 0 -3 0 2 4 1 -3 -3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 18 318 292 289 263 265 284 284 271 261 259 263 252 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 137 140 142 144 145 148 150 151 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 64 65 62 58 56 56 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 17 17 17 17 17 19 18 19 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 11 3 -9 -8 -32 -21 -10 -5 -5 6 11 200 MB DIV 37 38 38 45 33 68 89 45 18 57 53 44 47 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 1 9 9 9 7 13 9 LAND (KM) 670 567 468 362 270 154 170 133 85 49 144 273 395 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 18.0 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 151.4 152.4 153.3 154.3 155.2 156.8 157.6 158.2 158.9 159.9 161.2 162.4 163.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 13 14 33 51 49 54 45 42 35 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -4. -6. -4. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##