* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 54 55 49 44 41 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 6 6 7 6 13 16 19 19 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 51 51 22 317 299 248 179 221 221 265 258 252 230 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 159 161 164 162 158 156 154 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 9 7 10 7 9 7 9 6 9 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 70 69 65 64 68 69 68 66 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 18 20 17 14 9 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 37 48 55 65 85 85 98 88 87 91 77 200 MB DIV 84 56 43 64 83 111 105 86 103 40 11 20 8 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 3 LAND (KM) 341 278 220 171 122 24 -88 -199 -288 -275 -234 -208 -219 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.5 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.5 20.9 20.9 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.3 99.4 99.7 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 99.8 99.5 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 37 39 39 20 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 6. 2. -6. -10. -12. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 26. 29. 30. 24. 19. 16. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##