* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 111 107 103 97 81 56 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 112 111 107 103 97 81 56 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 103 97 92 84 67 52 44 40 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 14 18 18 25 33 38 46 42 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 0 3 6 9 11 4 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 212 210 224 218 199 217 245 277 298 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.1 14.0 11.4 10.0 12.5 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 134 128 125 122 76 74 73 75 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 120 114 114 114 74 72 72 73 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -56.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 35 33 34 40 47 53 49 50 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 32 32 35 36 29 20 17 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 32 32 17 6 -14 -26 -12 51 37 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 105 89 63 67 116 58 -13 5 -15 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 17 19 25 35 48 37 -3 14 67 44 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1039 1077 1063 1071 986 634 162 621 1474 617 -64 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.9 34.5 39.2 45.3 50.3 53.8 56.1 57.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 66.4 65.6 64.7 63.8 60.5 54.3 44.8 32.5 18.9 4.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 18 23 32 39 41 41 40 39 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 6 2 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -33. -48. -61. -72. -77. -78. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -7. -6. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. -3. -12. -15. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -34. -59. -81. -94.-105.-109.-114. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 29( 51) 25( 63) 20( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 1( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED